What will win the best picture Oscar? This year, the precursors that are supposed to narrow the field have served only to spread the wealth: The top guild prizes have gone to several movies, and you could still make a strong case for any of the eight nominees to ultimately prevail.

So below, your Carpetbagger will do just that. Ranked in order of strength, here are the contenders for best picture and the path each movie has to potential Oscar victory.

[Fill out your Oscar ballot.]